+ 4Q06 VoIP quarterlies published by iLocusiLocus has published the 4Q06 VoIP quarterlies. Reports reveal 4Q06 statistics in the area of (1) Carrier VoIP Equipment, (2) Enterprise VoIP Equipment, and (3) VoIP Minutes and Subscribers.In the Carrier VoIP Equipment market, 4Q06 saw shipment of over 9.9 million lines of nextgen Class 5, over 8.3 million lines of nextgen Class 4, and over 13.5 million service provider media gateway ports were shipped worldwide. Out of the Class 5 lines shipped, VoBB application lines showed a decline for the first time since 2004. However the business VoIP lines have significantly ramped up.In the Enterprise VoIP Equipment market, 4Q06 saw shipment of 2.29 million desktop IP phones, about 3.89 million IP PBX end user licenses, and 3.69 million enterprise VoIP gateway ports. An estimated 72,108 single mode VoIP over Wi-Fi handsets were shipped in 4Q06 in the enterprise segment, clearly pointing to the trend forward for dual-mode FMC handsets rather than single mode VoWiFi handsets.On the VoIP Minutes side, 4Q06 saw estimated 314.5 billion minutes of VoIP traffic carried by service providers worldwide. Of these minutes, 118.4 billion was local call volume, 174.3 billion was national long distance (NLD) call volume, and 21.8 billion was the international long distance (ILD) call volume.
+ News RoundupU.S. District Court has found Vonage guilty for infringing on three Verizon patents on VoIP technology. Vonage was ordered to pay $58 million, far less than the $197 million Verizon had requested. According to Verizon, Vonage's service is heavily dependent on the Verizon technology. Verizon said during the trial that it has lost 600,000 customers to Vonage as a result of the pilfered patents. The verdict also awards Verizon a 5.5 percent royalty on Vonage revenues for any future infringement.Akros Silicon, a semiconductor company, has secured $10.1 million in Series B financing led by Levensohn Venture Partners. Akros Silicon has developed mixed signal system-level IC solution that provides integration of Power over Ethernet (PoE) control, power management and interface to the Ethernet world. These ICs are used for bringing power to network attached appliances such as VoIP phones, wireless LAN access points, RFID tag readers, point-of-sale terminals, security cameras, remote access and home networked systems.Sonus Networks has announced IMS standards-based support for billing between different service provider's IP voice networks. The latest release includes support for standards-based feature, as outlined by the 3GPP, that enables operators to track individual calls throughout their own network and when the call is handed off to other network operators. According to Sonus it is one of the first telecommunications vendors to support this IMS-required billing feature.
+ Interview with Shahal Khan, CEO, CentileApplication server vendors have started to scale up their shipments. We saw a successful Netcentrex acquisition and Broadsoft is supposed to be filing an IPO soon. How does that make you feel?First and foremost, it is very good for the market. It shows that application space is now starting to take off and the market has started to move in that direction. Infrastructure is becoming more and more deployed where now carriers, enterprises and online companies that want to offer differentiated services - IMS services or converged services - are now looking at application service providers. So it is very good news for all of us in the market. It helps all of us.If we were to do a brand awareness survey Broadsoft will score higher over Centile even in Europe. Why are European companies like yourself less market savvy?It is a different way of doing business. It has also to do with management culture. The American management culture is very market minded and they are focused globally. Whereas European companies tend to be focused more on the regional market than on global market and are not as aggressive in sales and marketing. But now it is changing. We see now a lot of companies in Europe gearing up in terms of marketing. Centile as well is starting a large marketing campaign and we are opening offices in US, Middle East and Asia this year.Do you have any marketing advice for Asian or European VoIP vendors in order to be seen as leading vendors in the VoIP market?The most important advice that I can give is to focus on your market segment and be able to provide the best customer service support. It is best to start in your own region first, build regional case studies of success, build up your support organization and then utilize that in terms of marketing and sales. People in the market want to see vendors that have deployed large amounts and have done that successfully in every reference. Sales need to be supported locally by reference clients that have done large enough deployments on a large scale.You seem to be active in the FMC market. Can you tell us a little bit about your FMC efforts and whether you are gaining any traction there?We see more interest in GSM companies in deploying FMC service in order to pick more market from fixed line operators. We have just deployed our biggest deployment of FMC in Europe this year with the largest MVNO in Europe called Debitel.What are your plans in the immediate future? Are you seeking a suitable exit strategy right now?Centile has been doing business in the application server space for a long time. However we made ourselves openly available in the market since 2004. So, right now what we see is that we have a large and an open market for ourselves in Europe, Asia, Middle East and Africa. Our strategy would be to lead in the EMEA and Asian markets and become the market leader in hosted and premise based PBX, and FMC. We have a new product called click to call product with macromedia which is unique in the market. Our goal at the moment is to continue to invest in our company’s sales and marketing and to increase that. We are not looking at exit right now. The market is still very early. We want to gain more share in the market.European companies do not seem to be keen to outsource their PBX type services. Is that a fact or a myth?The main reason is that most of the large European companies are used to managing the PBX services. They have a lot of issues in giving out their large internal networks to carriers. We think that trend is going to continue. Most European, Asian and Middle East countries that we are in trials with are not very successful with large enterprises. However large enterprises are coming to us via IT vendors. Because of their culture of maintaining their own network and control of their own network it is likely that if there are over 500 employees, those organizations are going to deploy their own hosted PBX services. Anything under 500, then there is a possibility that the carrier may win. I think it comes down to way IT teams and telecom teams in Europe are structured and built. They want their own control over the systems.Why is the market led to believe that IP Centrex or hosted PBX is basically a North American SMB phenomenon?There are a few reasons for this. We have seen a lot of traction in terms of deployments by carriers in that market only. Most of the carriers have deployed this service in North America and there are not very large deployments in Europe, Africa or Middle East. The market in North America is ready for this kind of service right now. The reason being infrastructure, very high level of competition, and low barriers to entry. These features are unique to the North American market but now these are moving very quickly to Europe and other parts of the world where we see more deregulation and competition increasing. North American market has also given the carriers the opportunity to market their services little bit faster.
+ 2006 update on Fixed-Mobile ConvergenceCellular operators gain revenue from FMC in several ways. They can potentially gain new subscribers, substitute fixed minutes, and stimulate a higher call volume. But they also lose a healthy margin on minutes that are transported over WiFi due a large price differential between a Voice-over-WiFi call and a cellular call. The overall impact of FMC on cellular operators depends on proximity to WiFi access, and the calling patterns of cellular subscribers.In the US, cellular operators face a loss of $3.3 billion a year by 2007 due to FMC. UK cellular operators could lose $1.3 billion a year by 2007 due to FMC. These are estimates from our recent report on FMC. Sensitivity analysis done in the report shows that cellular operators in the US need to gain over 70 percent of the FMC market to balance the loss. The other way to balance the impact is to secure migration from fixed to FMC accounts. In the latter case, US cellular operators would need to own at least 78 percent of such FMC subscriptions.FMC for cellular operators is somewhat analogous to the opportunities and threats VoIP presented to fixed line operators in the late nineties. Since the dynamics in the market are different now, it remains to be seen what strategy the cellular operators will adopt in order to turn FMC into a net gain scenario.There have been very few commercial launches of FMC service. Service providers are mostly still in the stage of evaluation of FMC because the market is still unclear as to what convergence means to the consumer. Europe has been more active in FMC than other regions. Europe and North America account for nearly 90 percent activity. However, as mentioned, Europe is much more aggressive in FMC, and the US is relatively behind.Enterprise seems to be a lot more promising because that is where the cost reduction is most probably achievable. The opportunity for incremental revenue in enterprise FMC is probably higher than in consumer market. Consumer market is probably more of a cost reduction initiative than a revenue opportunity, especially for cellular service providers.There are several flavors of FMC available. One of the ways to categorize them is by considering the types of networks that are brought together from the wireless and wireline sides. On the wireless side there is not much difference. We have GSM, CDMA, and perhaps UMTS. On the wireline side we would have the traditional PSTN or the IP. Furthermore, on the IP side if we look at the end point that gives user access to the broadband IP, you would be looking at WiFi, Bluetooth, Wimax and maybe also the Femtocell now. Out of the IP access options, the one the industry seems to have standardized around is the WiFi. Therefore the current FMC market is mostly about WiF-Cellular convergence.If we narrow down the definition of FMC to WiFi-Cellular convergence, then there are about a dozen carriers that have put commercial FMC services on offer in the market. Five of the service providers have gone for the UMA option while the others have gone for the Pre-IMS solution based on SIP. It would be fair to mention that UMA based offerings are making more progress. There are several factors which determine the option implemented by the operators for Fixed-Mobile convergence. These include the existing infrastructure, time factor, long term objectives, CAPEX, services mix, and the target market.In terms of subscriber numbers, Fixed-Mobile Convergence is still in its infancy. Appreciable subscriber signups are not expected earlier than the second half of 2007. As of end 2006, very few commercial launches had taken place and mostly trials were going on. Around 200 to 300 FMC trials are currently going on and they are each in various stages of development. Interviews with service providers reveal that they are anticipating between 1 to 5 percent penetration once the service is fully deployed. By the end of 2007 iLocus forecasts the total number of FMC users at around 6.5 million worldwide. This is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 110 percent to 126.4 million subscribers by the year 2011. The present number of FMC subscribers worldwide is estimated at 436,000.Although it would be too early to rank vendors in this space, however there are clear indications as to who is gaining traction in this early adopter phase. Alcatel leads in both the UMA and Pre-IMS/IMS VCC categories. Within UMA, Kineto Wireless follows Alcatel. In the Pre-IMS/IMS VCC category, Alcatel’s lead is followed by NewStep and Convergin at number two and three respectively. For the overall FMC deployments, Alcatel leads the market with Kineto Wireless and NewStep at number two and number three respectively.For more information on the FMC report please
click here.